At the start of the 21st century, the trends of global trade and manufacturing flexibility continue. Computerization continues to be a major part of auto design and manufacture, as do the search for alternative fuels and more efficient automobile designs.
Computerization:
Computer-aided design tools are already used in the automobile industry and will continue to save months of design time and improve the quality of cars. In 1997 Chrysler designed its first paperless cars (1998 and 1999 full-size sedans) using digital model assembly. In the foreseeable future, the design engineer's computer-aided design might guide computer-controlled machinery and reduce the need for blueprints.
Microelectronics will be more fully applied to future automobiles and may become as commonplace as radios are today. On-board systems are becoming available that enable drivers to find destinations through voice-activated navigation or make cellular calls using the computer. These computers can access the Global Positioning System (GPS) and display maps to help drivers avoid congested freeways and find better routes to destinations.
Alternative Fuel Research:
Alternative energy sources for cars, such as natural gas, electricity, ethanol, vegetable oil, sunlight, and water, will vie for consumer use in the future. The Clean Air Act of 1990 and the National Energy Policy Act of 1992 created significant new market opportunities for alternative fuels by requiring government vehicles to use cleaner fuels.
Many vehicle manufacturers now convert existing vehicles or offer factory-built natural gas vehicles (NGV) that burn natural gas and cost less to run than conventionally fueled vehicles do. In many countries, natural gas is cheaper and more available, so NGVs could become popular in the future.
Corn-based gasohol (a combination of unleaded gasoline and ethanol made from corn) reduces fossil energy use by 50 to 60 percent and pollution by 35 to 46 percent. More than 11 percent of all automotive fuels sold in the United States are ethanol-blended, and that percentage may increase in the future. Agricultural sources of fuel have interested carmakers for decades. In 1997 the Veggie Van, a small motor home powered by a diesel motor that runs on a fuel made from used and new vegetable oil (called biodiesel), took a 16,000 km (10,000 mi) journey. The Veggie Van reached speeds up to 105 km/h (65 mph) and achieved a gas mileage of 10.5 km per liter (25 mi per gallon). Some fuel for the Veggie Van was made from used restaurant fryer oil, and its exhaust smelled like french fries.
Many large automakers are now adapting fuel cell technology for automobiles. Fuel cells are cleaner, quieter, and more energy efficient than internal-combustion engines. Fuel cells combine hydrogen and oxygen electrochemically without combustion to supply electricity. Fuel cell engines will likely run on conventional gasoline, but with a fraction of the emissions of a normal engine. The Ford Motor Company announced in December 1997 that it was investing $420 million in fuel cell research.
From 1995 to 1997 Mazda Motor Corporation experimented with a low-pollution hydrogen rotary engine vehicle, which burns hydrogen fuel that will not emit carbon dioxide. Japan reportedly aims to have a hydrogen fuel distribution network in place to support that fuel’s use in transportation by 2010. Scientists are also trying to reduce emissions of existing vehicles and are testing a device that uses electrons to nullify the noxious components of diesel exhaust.
Electric cars, powered by an electric motor and batteries, provide drivers with another alternative. To recharge the batteries, operators plug the car into a 120-volt or 240-volt outlet. A typical electric car averages 60 to 200 km (40 to 100 mi) per charge. Since most car trips are less than 120 km (75 mi), electric cars can help meet the needs of many two- or three-car families. In 1996 GM debuted the EV1, an emission-free electric car that seats two. The EV1 has been slow to catch on, however. Its batteries run out frequently and require several hours to recharge. Moreover, pioneering electric technology makes the EV1 expensive, especially when compared with conventional gasoline-powered cars of comparable size.
Hybrid automobiles combine an electric motor with batteries that are recharged by a small gas- or diesel-powered engine. By relying more on electricity and less on fuel combustion, hybrids have higher fuel efficiency and fewer toxic emissions. Several automakers have experimented with hybrids, and in 1997 Toyota became the first to mass-produce a hybrid vehicle. The first hybrid available for sale in North America was offered by Honda in 1999.
Efficiency:
In September 1993 U.S. president Bill Clinton established the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) between the U.S. government and the U.S. auto industry. The partnership aims to create affordable, midsize passenger vehicles that will achieve 34 km per liter (80 mi per gallon) (three times greater than the average achieved in 1994) or better, and reduce air pollution. These new designs feature hybrid engines that combine normal or improved gasoline engines with electric or fuel cell technology for better efficiency. To decrease the overall weight of cars, designers are using materials such as aluminum and plastic, as well as stronger, lighter steel. By the year 2000, major car companies had PNGV concept cars, and they planned to have PNGV production prototypes by 2003.
Materials and Safety:
Future vehicles will likely be made of different materials. For example, improved plastics or composites will reduce car weight, provide fuel economy, allow for smoother surfaces and more complex shapes, and better manage crash energy. As fuel costs increase and the cost of composite body construction decreases, widespread use of plastics could follow. Ceramics, which cut weight and thus improve fuel economy, will increase operating efficiency in applications such as pistons and turbocharger rotors.
Safety will continue to be a concern for automakers. Airbags have saved numerous lives, but they have also been responsible for injuries and deaths of small children, due to the forceful action of the airbags when they inflate. New rules from the U.S. Department of Transportation in 1997 allowed some consumers to remove the airbags or to disable them when small children are riding in front passenger seats. Another point of controversy concerns the recent popularity of large sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickup trucks. When an ordinary car collides with a truck or SUV, studies show that the car passengers are much more likely to suffer injury or death than are the occupants of the larger vehicles. SUVs and trucks are heavier and higher off the ground than ordinary cars and frequently run over the bumpers of ordinary cars during collisions. Industry representatives, government agencies, and insurance groups are currently working on these problems to create practical solutions and increase safety on the road.
The auto industry of the future will be characterized by vanishing boundaries: between countries and companies, between suppliers and manufacturers, between engineering fields, between departments (that is, marketing, design, and finance), between labor and management, and between automotive and consumer electronics. Companies that rapidly adapt to unpredictable and dynamic events will prevail.
